Take a deep breath, Leah. Your foot is aflame . Oil, Leah. Oil. Iran is the DEATH TO AMERICA terrorist nation. Would you rather give the thugocracy the chance to do so. Iran has been a terrorist nation since Jimmy Carter allowed it to become one. Obama sent pallets of cash. WTF Muslim dude not from Hawaii with the Connecticut SS #!
China has its knickers in a wad because of oil. Trump gave the Ayatollahs time to negotiate. They dragged their feet. They ignored the deadline.
Regarding Wiles and Bondi, yes, two poisonous snakes.
Whole lotta shakin' going on in Texas with 🌽 yn, Paxton, Thune and POTUS. 🌽 yn and Thune have their nuts in a vice as Paxton has pledged to drop out of the run off election in May if Thune goes live with the filibuster and the Save Act. 🌽 yn and Thune want to do neither but 🌽 yn wants to remain in the Senate. If 🌽 yn and Thune are wise they will accept the Paxton challenge. If not, Paxton succeeds in the run off. And if they accept? What happens to Paxton? Don't be surprised if he replaces Bondi as AG.
Put some cooling water in your foot bath. Add some Epsom salts. Have a sip of your favorite adult beverage. I respect your opinion . Mine is otherwise.
POTUS is realigning global relationships and putting the Stalinist Democrats in the untenable position of not only supporting the enemies of the USA but swooning over them. You may not like how Trump wins, but he does . Even the partisan judges are getting their biased decisions overruled by higher courts.
Sunday blessings from my equatorial living hangout in northeast Brasil.
Thanks for taking the time to respond, FtB. Sorry it's taken my a few days to respond—trying not to prioritize screen life, especially not when we have glorious early March weather.
I get that you hear me as hyperventilating and simply needing to calm down and take a few deep breaths, etc.. Of course, I will protest that my concern is not reactionary, not simply moral outrage triggered by a personal anti-war sentiment. Yes, I do have a very narrow definition of a "just war" and pre-emptive regime change doesn't fit in it. But that's not the sum total of my objection.
Even deeper than that, my concern is based on information leaking from MAGA proponents inside the administration who are privy to the tenor of Trump's decision making. They are very worried that Trump has been blinding himself, attaching to a story he wants to hear and acting on it rather than making hard decisions based on all the relevant facts.
Specifically, they report that people around Trump have, for weeks now, been told not to give him bad news (I don't know by whom, but I'd guess Susie Wiles) and so everyone has been tiptoeing around his temper because contrary opinions and negative assessments set him off. So the way information is being handled, according to the insiders, makes their King Lear allusion real and concerning: becoming isolated in a preferred narrative is not the sign of a strong and balanced leader who has a firm grasp of the situation and is steering the ship from a position of wise counsel. And because I not only trust the personal integrity of my sources but they have a long track record of having solid intel and being right about things, I don't trust the rosy picture being painted by Team Trump supporters and FoxNews propagandists that he's on his game, making tough decisions with clear vision and measured risk. I think this whole gambit is a literal shot in the dark.
I have no 47 administration sources, Leah. You narrate you do. I look at results, not leaks and expressed opinions from administration sources who may very well have their own agendas. You do understand RINO , I know. America First is something I advocate for. That's what I see as being successful. I could care less about some “insiders” ( your sources ). “ feelings “. Trump is an imperfect soul but he loves America. He flat out pisses a lot of people off because he simplify is not a deep state UniParty career politician. Your suspicions should examine Congress which is an unmitigated clown show. War is the ultimate end game. I experienced Vietnam first hand as a young Marine officer. It was a stain on the history of the USA. I am thankful to have survived.
Iran is a terrorist nation. The world will be a safer place in whatever form it may take in the future without it being a thugocracy run by Ayatollahs violating the citizens of Iran.
I understand your skepticism. Expected it. My sources, however, are 100% anti-RINO/Uniparty, about as passionately populist as you can get. And the insiders they're talking to are largely the same (which is why they're in contact)—joined Trump's administration to propel MAGA forward. Their deep concern is that they're seeing it being derailed by other agendas, regardless how it's all being 🇺🇸sold🇺🇸 to the public. If we're looking at facts as they stand, one can only wonder where all the long-promised MAGA accountability is? (Hint: where all just causes go for burial—Pam Bondi's desk.🙁)
More to the point, history shows how difficult it is to advance a comprehensive domestic agenda with a hostile/apathetic/cowardly Congress. It's even more unlikely with a Commander-in-Chief distracted by war. Given how high-stakes and geo-politically complex this one is, I think it's too much to believe that it will end quickly, or that Trump will have the bandwidth to execute his foreign and domestic agendas together with real success. In fact, with this leap into war he's been burning through his political capital at a rate that portends a Republican wipeout this November. And then the impeachments will begin. It is incredibly discouraging to see him digging himself into such a deep hole. I can only presume he doesn't realize it's MAGA's grave.
But as I know my pill is black and galling, I'll leave you with my fervent hope that you are proven right and I am proven wrong. I'd far prefer to live in the reality you are seeing than the one I am.🙏🏻
I am not a Wiles or Bondi fan. Two poor picks by The Donald. I remain committed to the America First agenda. I broadcast negative taste for the Pavlovian lap dog legacy media or anything DC in general.
Our government is about the sustenance of the political elites, not about the citizens and certainly in favor of the K Street lobbyists.
So your "sources" are speaking to " insiders" whom are " broadcasting" discontent . And you are third party opinion expressing based on that?
I would like to see you as being better than that. Let's leave the discussion to deeds, not words, Leah. Not yours or mine. Not your sources talking to insiders. But, Trump's.
Watch what happens with the Thune, 🌽 yn, Paxton play calling.
Lloyd's is back in the maritime reinsurance business .
My glass remains half full.
Thanks for the discourse. The pleasure was mine dancing with you.
Oregado.trump is a flawed man but is this mission flawed. There is always a choice in life. The choice here, if not what Trump chose is... exactly what ? Iranian mullahs to see the light and wish to live in peace. Here's a reality: much of Europe and many in America would like to Israel gone. Some because they hate jews. Others because they delusionally believe if only Israel was no more peace would flourish. A look at London or countless other European cities suggests peace is not about to break out anywhere Israel or no Israel.
Obrigado. Appreciated response. Each of us in flawed , CS. I see Trump differently than you. His personality may be abrasive but his AMERICA FIRST policies are attractive to me as I continue on my 83 rd year journey. I am not one of the Americans who wish to see Israel gone as apparently you are. Europe will be ruled my Islam in less than a decade. The next PM of the UK could very well be a Muslim. As Islam continues to spread Israel will continue to be threatened by Muslims.
Have you identified any nations that have come to the aid of Iran?
I believe when the dust settles the Abraham Accords will contribute greatly to peaceful economic vitality in the Middle East absent the thugocracy of Iran.
You read me completely wrong. I am an American jew . My point is much of the world detests Israel and at best is indifferent to jews. Trump is doing what needs to be done, not merely fkr israrl but for freedom around the world. This is about way more than Israel. I voted three times for trump, with zero hesitation or regret. On the basis of policy. And because , even though I don't care for his flawed character ( my opinion) I trust his judgment on almost all issues. And he was and is far far better than the alternatives. I hope this helps
My apology for my failure to analyze your expressed view correctly. It is about way more than Israel as you opine. Flawed character as you express or not, DJT gets things done even without the support of the UNIPARTY RINO elites in the sewer of our nations Capitol. He treatens the deep state and as an outsider to career politicians he flat out pisses them off because they depend on K Street money laundering lobbyists. He exists on his own even without a presidential salary.
Appreciate the dialogue. So many things going on these days. I have been focused lately on the notion of as well as the nature of evil. I also focus on geopolitics ( as i have for over 55 years) and realize quite clearly that they two do not always coalesce but I think they do in this instance. Hopefully I am not being too vague or obtuse . I also have focused lately on leadership and what a great leader does ( how-to assess real leadership if you will). Because we live in a polarized world predominantly comprised of soundbytes and short attention spans it is very hard to stimulate thought much less dialgue regarding any of this. But I am committed to trying because we live in times where knowledge and thinking are more important than ever, ie, pursuing truth without any interference of ideology. Maybe I am tilting at windmills like ije some crazy Spaniard? 😉
Sadly, since we first used air power in world war I, there's exactly a 0% success rate in causing significant lasting change by dropping bombs alone. (An argument could be made regarding Hiroshima, but I tend to put nuclear weapons in a very different category)
Bringing enough infantry to accomplish what one might assume our ends are in Iran (finding and neutralizing fissionable material and installing sane leadership) would be a staggering task and require full-throated American backing. I sincerely hope the president is looking for an off-ramp and is willing to pay the political price for taking it.
Leah, I appreciate the transparency and the anguish underneath all this. It is very hard to evolve one's position and I think even harder to re-evolve even a portion of a position to which one has given great psychic energy.
Separately, I appreciate the responses your work engendered. I've followed the links and been educated and challenged on the complexities of the situation.
For me, holding aside the question of whether the situation we are now in was inevitable and, if so, how great leadership might have brought the nation to it in a united fashion, the amateurishness of the Administration's handling of it is unsurprising. Character matters. Trump supporters can cry TDS all they want, but the man was never going to be the right guy to lead regardless of what problems one thought most acute in the national picture.
Thanks Dave. I get your take on Trump. Character indeed matters, but truth is I don't think we had any good options in 2024—not after RFK Jr. was sidelined. Had Trump made some smarter cabinet picks (e.g. State, AG, CIA, DHS, DoW) and chosen a Chief of Staff who wouldn't gate-keep the true MAGA voices from reaching Trump, we'd be living in a more stable, peaceful moment. Unfortunately, he's likes to be surrounded by pretty faces and that shallow impulse is proving a carry steep risk for the rest of us.
Agree, Leah. The mission of my substack is to point out that we will never get good choices/good election winners with the current election system. 7% of the most partisan voters effectively choose 87% of U.S. representatives - the result of partisan primaries and gerrymandered districts. In this system, truly principled public servants representing the majority middle of the ideological bell curve won't run and couldn't win. That leaves us with legislatures full of actors concerned only with pleasing the hyper-partisan part of their base and collecting campaign contributions from the mega-wealthy and special interests. This, in turn, has created the conditions for power usurpation by the Executive branch (a decades-long reality).
Not easy to fix this, but a large movement of electoral reformers are engaged and beginning to make progress. Lots of education necessary across the country.
You’re convinced Trump has lost touch with himself and that Deep-Staters and neocons have suddenly got his ear. He’d long been opposed to nation-building quagmires, but now he’s throwing it all away. Also, he never had any principles.
I kind of agree on the last, if by principles you mean allegiance to a set of rules as to how to get things done. He doesn’t have that, nor does he have the other thing that typically comes with it: a deep concern not to offend others with similar principles.
But he has principles, if by it we mean 1) a love for the US, 2) a commitment to making it great again, and 3) a serious work ethic.
Just because there were neocon nation-building wars for profit doesn’t mean all wars are that. Trump is not in favor of peace if the word means refusing to use force if it’s needed. He’s obviously a pragmatist. Not a war-monger, but not a pacifist either.
I support RFK Jr. too. Very dedicated guy who really wants MAHA.
I think your piece is well written, but disagree with your reading of what’s going on. The reasons it’s going on. I too am seriously unnerved by this move, but also would be unnerved by *not* moving. Of course I don’t know if Trump’s gambit will work.
You’ve seen a very shorthand version of this, but I’ve laid it out more fully. You’re not in the Dummy class I reference here, but you seem to be fixed in how you categorize military action.
Thanks for the sharing your perspective here, Eric. I read your piece and appreciate your logic. I think your assessment makes sense—it's a plausible framing. But as I said in a response to you elsewhere, I simply don't have faith that what you're here ascribing to Trump—his view of the chessboard and his measured, calculated risk-taking—is actually the reality of what's going on.
If you scroll (up?) to my reply to From the Beach, I explain what I think is more likely the situation, and why I think the risks have not actually been calculated per your outline.
To add to my viewpoint there with respect to who has Trump's ear and what that implies regarding his information pool: consider that when Trump gave the go ahead for strikes to begin, three notable cabinet members were absent from his situation room at Mar-a-lago: his Vice President, his Director of National Intelligence, and his Energy Secretary. All were back in Washington—or more to the point as I understand it, left behind. And all three are known to have firmly advised against this operation, Tulsi specifically with consistent intel that Iran was not anywhere near a nuclear threat. (Ratcliffe at the CIA apparently gets his intel from Israel, which might be why it contradicts hers.) I think it's a concerning signal that the president launched an extremely significant and risky oil related move in the Middle East without those key positions in the room. At the very least it should give us all pause to wonder what power games are being played that would sideline the voices of caution and skepticism close to the Commander in Chief at a moment like this.
Will read your reply to From the Beach. As for the timeline to having nukes, of course neither you nor I are *sure* one way or the other, but I generally trust the analysis that says decades of refining plus the regime’s own statements put them close. There’s no civilian use for anything above 20%, and they’re at 60%.
It’s worth looking at who’s got an executive’s ear at this or that period, but I focus more on 1) the global situation to the extent we can know it, plus 2) what we know of Trump over the years. Thus, for instance, Jeffrey Sachs’ guess that Trump has gone nuts—this to me isn’t political analysis as much as projection. For one, Trump’s threat re: Greenland is Trump, not some warped new version. This is the same man who came out with the huge and insane Tariff Board on Liberation Day.
And the strategy worked. The guy scares the hell out of me, but so far he’s made effective moves. Iran? We don’t know yet.
While I appreciate your position (as an anti-war former libertarian), I disagree with you here. This is not a new war. This is ending one that started 47 years ago. A war that Iran has been allowed to pursue, largely unhindered, and largely through proxies, for 47 years.
If you're not aware of the theological basis of Iran's war with Israel and the U.S., I recommend reading this article: https://4timorr.substack.com/p/irans-war-against-israel-the-shia I myself have long been aware of these facts, but those who are not are missing a key piece of the puzzle when it comes to what Iran's theocracy is willing to do.
Imagine the ramifications if a Christian country, led by a Christian theocracy, believed that the Second Coming would only occur if that country first eliminated every Arab country (and, indeed, spilled every drop of Arab blood on the planet). The Leftists (and many other reasonable human beings) would be calling for the elimination of that country yesterday.
As much as one may desire an end to war, "it needs but one foe to breed a war... And those who have no swords can still die upon them." (LotR)
Thanks for the link, Celia. I will read it. For the record, it's not that I think Iran poses zero threat, but that there are ways to protect against its threat to America/Americans that don't include direct U.S. military intervention there.
All of what's going on now presupposes an end result in which Iran is rendered toothless going forward—the threat ended. That's the point of it, right? Yet just last summer we launched a 12 day air campaign to wipe out their (supposedly imminent) nuclear threat and were told of its smashing (literally) success. But a bare 10 months later they are (supposedly) at the brink of a nuclear weapon again. That tells me we're being lied to somewhere. Or if not—if all the assessments were indeed accurate—we can expect Iran, barring longterm occupation by U.S. or Israeli troops (Iraq 2.0, anyone?), to be a threat again much sooner than we're now being promised. It doesn't add up. And I believe there are more narrowly targeted approaches to protecting ourselves that don't risk so many innocent lives, military personnel, or the global economy.
Take a deep breath, Leah. Your foot is aflame . Oil, Leah. Oil. Iran is the DEATH TO AMERICA terrorist nation. Would you rather give the thugocracy the chance to do so. Iran has been a terrorist nation since Jimmy Carter allowed it to become one. Obama sent pallets of cash. WTF Muslim dude not from Hawaii with the Connecticut SS #!
China has its knickers in a wad because of oil. Trump gave the Ayatollahs time to negotiate. They dragged their feet. They ignored the deadline.
Regarding Wiles and Bondi, yes, two poisonous snakes.
Whole lotta shakin' going on in Texas with 🌽 yn, Paxton, Thune and POTUS. 🌽 yn and Thune have their nuts in a vice as Paxton has pledged to drop out of the run off election in May if Thune goes live with the filibuster and the Save Act. 🌽 yn and Thune want to do neither but 🌽 yn wants to remain in the Senate. If 🌽 yn and Thune are wise they will accept the Paxton challenge. If not, Paxton succeeds in the run off. And if they accept? What happens to Paxton? Don't be surprised if he replaces Bondi as AG.
Put some cooling water in your foot bath. Add some Epsom salts. Have a sip of your favorite adult beverage. I respect your opinion . Mine is otherwise.
POTUS is realigning global relationships and putting the Stalinist Democrats in the untenable position of not only supporting the enemies of the USA but swooning over them. You may not like how Trump wins, but he does . Even the partisan judges are getting their biased decisions overruled by higher courts.
Sunday blessings from my equatorial living hangout in northeast Brasil.
Thanks for taking the time to respond, FtB. Sorry it's taken my a few days to respond—trying not to prioritize screen life, especially not when we have glorious early March weather.
I get that you hear me as hyperventilating and simply needing to calm down and take a few deep breaths, etc.. Of course, I will protest that my concern is not reactionary, not simply moral outrage triggered by a personal anti-war sentiment. Yes, I do have a very narrow definition of a "just war" and pre-emptive regime change doesn't fit in it. But that's not the sum total of my objection.
Even deeper than that, my concern is based on information leaking from MAGA proponents inside the administration who are privy to the tenor of Trump's decision making. They are very worried that Trump has been blinding himself, attaching to a story he wants to hear and acting on it rather than making hard decisions based on all the relevant facts.
Specifically, they report that people around Trump have, for weeks now, been told not to give him bad news (I don't know by whom, but I'd guess Susie Wiles) and so everyone has been tiptoeing around his temper because contrary opinions and negative assessments set him off. So the way information is being handled, according to the insiders, makes their King Lear allusion real and concerning: becoming isolated in a preferred narrative is not the sign of a strong and balanced leader who has a firm grasp of the situation and is steering the ship from a position of wise counsel. And because I not only trust the personal integrity of my sources but they have a long track record of having solid intel and being right about things, I don't trust the rosy picture being painted by Team Trump supporters and FoxNews propagandists that he's on his game, making tough decisions with clear vision and measured risk. I think this whole gambit is a literal shot in the dark.
Hence my prayers for everyone. 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
I have no 47 administration sources, Leah. You narrate you do. I look at results, not leaks and expressed opinions from administration sources who may very well have their own agendas. You do understand RINO , I know. America First is something I advocate for. That's what I see as being successful. I could care less about some “insiders” ( your sources ). “ feelings “. Trump is an imperfect soul but he loves America. He flat out pisses a lot of people off because he simplify is not a deep state UniParty career politician. Your suspicions should examine Congress which is an unmitigated clown show. War is the ultimate end game. I experienced Vietnam first hand as a young Marine officer. It was a stain on the history of the USA. I am thankful to have survived.
Iran is a terrorist nation. The world will be a safer place in whatever form it may take in the future without it being a thugocracy run by Ayatollahs violating the citizens of Iran.
However it must be eradicated, I am all for it.
I understand your skepticism. Expected it. My sources, however, are 100% anti-RINO/Uniparty, about as passionately populist as you can get. And the insiders they're talking to are largely the same (which is why they're in contact)—joined Trump's administration to propel MAGA forward. Their deep concern is that they're seeing it being derailed by other agendas, regardless how it's all being 🇺🇸sold🇺🇸 to the public. If we're looking at facts as they stand, one can only wonder where all the long-promised MAGA accountability is? (Hint: where all just causes go for burial—Pam Bondi's desk.🙁)
More to the point, history shows how difficult it is to advance a comprehensive domestic agenda with a hostile/apathetic/cowardly Congress. It's even more unlikely with a Commander-in-Chief distracted by war. Given how high-stakes and geo-politically complex this one is, I think it's too much to believe that it will end quickly, or that Trump will have the bandwidth to execute his foreign and domestic agendas together with real success. In fact, with this leap into war he's been burning through his political capital at a rate that portends a Republican wipeout this November. And then the impeachments will begin. It is incredibly discouraging to see him digging himself into such a deep hole. I can only presume he doesn't realize it's MAGA's grave.
But as I know my pill is black and galling, I'll leave you with my fervent hope that you are proven right and I am proven wrong. I'd far prefer to live in the reality you are seeing than the one I am.🙏🏻
I am not a Wiles or Bondi fan. Two poor picks by The Donald. I remain committed to the America First agenda. I broadcast negative taste for the Pavlovian lap dog legacy media or anything DC in general.
Our government is about the sustenance of the political elites, not about the citizens and certainly in favor of the K Street lobbyists.
So your "sources" are speaking to " insiders" whom are " broadcasting" discontent . And you are third party opinion expressing based on that?
I would like to see you as being better than that. Let's leave the discussion to deeds, not words, Leah. Not yours or mine. Not your sources talking to insiders. But, Trump's.
Watch what happens with the Thune, 🌽 yn, Paxton play calling.
Lloyd's is back in the maritime reinsurance business .
My glass remains half full.
Thanks for the discourse. The pleasure was mine dancing with you.
Oregado.trump is a flawed man but is this mission flawed. There is always a choice in life. The choice here, if not what Trump chose is... exactly what ? Iranian mullahs to see the light and wish to live in peace. Here's a reality: much of Europe and many in America would like to Israel gone. Some because they hate jews. Others because they delusionally believe if only Israel was no more peace would flourish. A look at London or countless other European cities suggests peace is not about to break out anywhere Israel or no Israel.
Obrigado. Appreciated response. Each of us in flawed , CS. I see Trump differently than you. His personality may be abrasive but his AMERICA FIRST policies are attractive to me as I continue on my 83 rd year journey. I am not one of the Americans who wish to see Israel gone as apparently you are. Europe will be ruled my Islam in less than a decade. The next PM of the UK could very well be a Muslim. As Islam continues to spread Israel will continue to be threatened by Muslims.
Have you identified any nations that have come to the aid of Iran?
I believe when the dust settles the Abraham Accords will contribute greatly to peaceful economic vitality in the Middle East absent the thugocracy of Iran.
You read me completely wrong. I am an American jew . My point is much of the world detests Israel and at best is indifferent to jews. Trump is doing what needs to be done, not merely fkr israrl but for freedom around the world. This is about way more than Israel. I voted three times for trump, with zero hesitation or regret. On the basis of policy. And because , even though I don't care for his flawed character ( my opinion) I trust his judgment on almost all issues. And he was and is far far better than the alternatives. I hope this helps
My apology for my failure to analyze your expressed view correctly. It is about way more than Israel as you opine. Flawed character as you express or not, DJT gets things done even without the support of the UNIPARTY RINO elites in the sewer of our nations Capitol. He treatens the deep state and as an outsider to career politicians he flat out pisses them off because they depend on K Street money laundering lobbyists. He exists on his own even without a presidential salary.
Appreciate the dialogue. So many things going on these days. I have been focused lately on the notion of as well as the nature of evil. I also focus on geopolitics ( as i have for over 55 years) and realize quite clearly that they two do not always coalesce but I think they do in this instance. Hopefully I am not being too vague or obtuse . I also have focused lately on leadership and what a great leader does ( how-to assess real leadership if you will). Because we live in a polarized world predominantly comprised of soundbytes and short attention spans it is very hard to stimulate thought much less dialgue regarding any of this. But I am committed to trying because we live in times where knowledge and thinking are more important than ever, ie, pursuing truth without any interference of ideology. Maybe I am tilting at windmills like ije some crazy Spaniard? 😉
Knowledge and thinking are more important than ever. Especially with the bloom of AI. Pay the windmills no consideration.😎
I took Eric's lead to read his substack and that led to this one - I highly encourage everyone to read both. Quite educational and thought provoking.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-iranian-ink-blot?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=16fcn
Yeah, I too share these misgivings, Leah.
And thank you for the link to Gato. The best essay so far that I have seen.
I think el gato's strongest point is the deep truth of life: it's all tradeoffs.
Sadly, since we first used air power in world war I, there's exactly a 0% success rate in causing significant lasting change by dropping bombs alone. (An argument could be made regarding Hiroshima, but I tend to put nuclear weapons in a very different category)
Bringing enough infantry to accomplish what one might assume our ends are in Iran (finding and neutralizing fissionable material and installing sane leadership) would be a staggering task and require full-throated American backing. I sincerely hope the president is looking for an off-ramp and is willing to pay the political price for taking it.
Leah, I appreciate the transparency and the anguish underneath all this. It is very hard to evolve one's position and I think even harder to re-evolve even a portion of a position to which one has given great psychic energy.
Separately, I appreciate the responses your work engendered. I've followed the links and been educated and challenged on the complexities of the situation.
For me, holding aside the question of whether the situation we are now in was inevitable and, if so, how great leadership might have brought the nation to it in a united fashion, the amateurishness of the Administration's handling of it is unsurprising. Character matters. Trump supporters can cry TDS all they want, but the man was never going to be the right guy to lead regardless of what problems one thought most acute in the national picture.
Thanks Dave. I get your take on Trump. Character indeed matters, but truth is I don't think we had any good options in 2024—not after RFK Jr. was sidelined. Had Trump made some smarter cabinet picks (e.g. State, AG, CIA, DHS, DoW) and chosen a Chief of Staff who wouldn't gate-keep the true MAGA voices from reaching Trump, we'd be living in a more stable, peaceful moment. Unfortunately, he's likes to be surrounded by pretty faces and that shallow impulse is proving a carry steep risk for the rest of us.
Agree, Leah. The mission of my substack is to point out that we will never get good choices/good election winners with the current election system. 7% of the most partisan voters effectively choose 87% of U.S. representatives - the result of partisan primaries and gerrymandered districts. In this system, truly principled public servants representing the majority middle of the ideological bell curve won't run and couldn't win. That leaves us with legislatures full of actors concerned only with pleasing the hyper-partisan part of their base and collecting campaign contributions from the mega-wealthy and special interests. This, in turn, has created the conditions for power usurpation by the Executive branch (a decades-long reality).
Not easy to fix this, but a large movement of electoral reformers are engaged and beginning to make progress. Lots of education necessary across the country.
You’re convinced Trump has lost touch with himself and that Deep-Staters and neocons have suddenly got his ear. He’d long been opposed to nation-building quagmires, but now he’s throwing it all away. Also, he never had any principles.
I kind of agree on the last, if by principles you mean allegiance to a set of rules as to how to get things done. He doesn’t have that, nor does he have the other thing that typically comes with it: a deep concern not to offend others with similar principles.
But he has principles, if by it we mean 1) a love for the US, 2) a commitment to making it great again, and 3) a serious work ethic.
Just because there were neocon nation-building wars for profit doesn’t mean all wars are that. Trump is not in favor of peace if the word means refusing to use force if it’s needed. He’s obviously a pragmatist. Not a war-monger, but not a pacifist either.
I support RFK Jr. too. Very dedicated guy who really wants MAHA.
I think your piece is well written, but disagree with your reading of what’s going on. The reasons it’s going on. I too am seriously unnerved by this move, but also would be unnerved by *not* moving. Of course I don’t know if Trump’s gambit will work.
You’ve seen a very shorthand version of this, but I’ve laid it out more fully. You’re not in the Dummy class I reference here, but you seem to be fixed in how you categorize military action.
https://ericmader.substack.com/p/trumps-iran-move-for-dummies
Thanks for the sharing your perspective here, Eric. I read your piece and appreciate your logic. I think your assessment makes sense—it's a plausible framing. But as I said in a response to you elsewhere, I simply don't have faith that what you're here ascribing to Trump—his view of the chessboard and his measured, calculated risk-taking—is actually the reality of what's going on.
If you scroll (up?) to my reply to From the Beach, I explain what I think is more likely the situation, and why I think the risks have not actually been calculated per your outline.
To add to my viewpoint there with respect to who has Trump's ear and what that implies regarding his information pool: consider that when Trump gave the go ahead for strikes to begin, three notable cabinet members were absent from his situation room at Mar-a-lago: his Vice President, his Director of National Intelligence, and his Energy Secretary. All were back in Washington—or more to the point as I understand it, left behind. And all three are known to have firmly advised against this operation, Tulsi specifically with consistent intel that Iran was not anywhere near a nuclear threat. (Ratcliffe at the CIA apparently gets his intel from Israel, which might be why it contradicts hers.) I think it's a concerning signal that the president launched an extremely significant and risky oil related move in the Middle East without those key positions in the room. At the very least it should give us all pause to wonder what power games are being played that would sideline the voices of caution and skepticism close to the Commander in Chief at a moment like this.
Will read your reply to From the Beach. As for the timeline to having nukes, of course neither you nor I are *sure* one way or the other, but I generally trust the analysis that says decades of refining plus the regime’s own statements put them close. There’s no civilian use for anything above 20%, and they’re at 60%.
It’s worth looking at who’s got an executive’s ear at this or that period, but I focus more on 1) the global situation to the extent we can know it, plus 2) what we know of Trump over the years. Thus, for instance, Jeffrey Sachs’ guess that Trump has gone nuts—this to me isn’t political analysis as much as projection. For one, Trump’s threat re: Greenland is Trump, not some warped new version. This is the same man who came out with the huge and insane Tariff Board on Liberation Day.
And the strategy worked. The guy scares the hell out of me, but so far he’s made effective moves. Iran? We don’t know yet.
While I appreciate your position (as an anti-war former libertarian), I disagree with you here. This is not a new war. This is ending one that started 47 years ago. A war that Iran has been allowed to pursue, largely unhindered, and largely through proxies, for 47 years.
If you're not aware of the theological basis of Iran's war with Israel and the U.S., I recommend reading this article: https://4timorr.substack.com/p/irans-war-against-israel-the-shia I myself have long been aware of these facts, but those who are not are missing a key piece of the puzzle when it comes to what Iran's theocracy is willing to do.
Imagine the ramifications if a Christian country, led by a Christian theocracy, believed that the Second Coming would only occur if that country first eliminated every Arab country (and, indeed, spilled every drop of Arab blood on the planet). The Leftists (and many other reasonable human beings) would be calling for the elimination of that country yesterday.
As much as one may desire an end to war, "it needs but one foe to breed a war... And those who have no swords can still die upon them." (LotR)
Thanks for the link, Celia. I will read it. For the record, it's not that I think Iran poses zero threat, but that there are ways to protect against its threat to America/Americans that don't include direct U.S. military intervention there.
All of what's going on now presupposes an end result in which Iran is rendered toothless going forward—the threat ended. That's the point of it, right? Yet just last summer we launched a 12 day air campaign to wipe out their (supposedly imminent) nuclear threat and were told of its smashing (literally) success. But a bare 10 months later they are (supposedly) at the brink of a nuclear weapon again. That tells me we're being lied to somewhere. Or if not—if all the assessments were indeed accurate—we can expect Iran, barring longterm occupation by U.S. or Israeli troops (Iraq 2.0, anyone?), to be a threat again much sooner than we're now being promised. It doesn't add up. And I believe there are more narrowly targeted approaches to protecting ourselves that don't risk so many innocent lives, military personnel, or the global economy.
I’m not sure what those approaches would be.